Updated on January 22, 2025 10:08:57 AM EST

December's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The Conference Board announced a 0.1% decline in the indicators, meaning they are predicting flat economic activity over the next few months. As a sign of slower economic growth, we can label the data good news for rates. That said, this report comes from a private business research group and not a governmental agency. That has limited its impact on this morning's trading.

We will get the results of today's 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. These auctions indicate investor interest for longer term securities. If demand for today's sale was strong, particularly from international buyers, we may see the broader bond market improve after results are posted. On the other hand, lackluster interest in the securities may lead to an upward revision to rates during mid or late afternoon trading today.

Tomorrow's only relevant data is the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to reveal approximately 219,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made, up from the previous week's 217,000. A much larger number would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it would be a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Since this is just a weekly update instead of the traditional monthly and quarterly data it normally doesn't have a big impact on trading or mortgage pricing. However, with so little scheduled this week, we may see a stronger than usual response to a surprise number.

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